Jim Byers’ Signs of Hope Blog: Experts Point to a Coming Travel Surge

February 10, 2021 Jim Byers

Winter bookings are up in Arizona. Searches on Delta Air Lines are up. And a new study from the U.S. shows a large increase in the number of folks planning to travel in the next six months.

According to the latest Longwoods International tracking study of American travellers (you remember America, right, the place with all the vaccinations?), 81% plan to travel in the next six months. That’s an increase of 16 percentage points since mid-January and the highest level since the beginning of the pandemic last March.

Coupled with a surge in travel plans for the upcoming six months, the percentage of travellers who say that the coronavirus is greatly impacting their decision to travel during this time period has dropped to 40%, the lowest level since March 2020. 

“The arrival of multiple coronavirus vaccines has reignited travel planning in the U.S.,” said Amir Eylon, President and CEO of Longwoods International. “The travel industry recovery appears poised to track in synch with the success of the mass vaccination program now underway across America.” 

Vaccines are top of mind for American travellers, with two thirds saying the vaccine will impact their travel plans. More than a third of travellers do not plan to travel until they are vaccinated, and a fifth of travellers do not plan to travel until a majority of Americans have received the vaccine. 

Still, that 81% wanting to travel soon number is quite positive. Canada often appears a couple months behind the U.S. when it comes to all sorts of things, and our vaccination rate definitely fits that pattern. So it’s encouraging to see that the travel ropes are starting to be unbound a little south of the border.

Ed Bastian, the CEO of Delta Air Lines, said the other day that Americans aren’t booking in large numbers yet, but they are looking, and that ” looks are up meaningfully.”

“Honestly, from where we’re at even a gradual ramp-up will feel like a surge,” he said, and ain’t that the truth?

Bastian said international travel to the U.S. won’t significantly rebound for another year or 18 months.

In a report prepared by the Tourism Industry Association of Canada and Twenty31 consulting out of Vancouver, it was stated that 43% of U.S. travellers have winter trips planned for early this year.

The report, which I highly recommend to anyone who follows the travel and tourism industry in Canada, makes a number of other excellent points. Here are a few highlights from their list of 21 things to keep an eye on this year.

Think local – again

With many borders still closed, and the potential of provincial quarantines looming, domestic locations in national parks, winter ski and beach towns will gain even more traction as preferred tourist choices; the focus on domestic tourism will continue to signal a massive departure from
international and regular seasonal travel over the year to come.

The rise of rural travel

Search data is already showing that nearly 90% of overall searches are for trips to rural areas; cabin rentals are expected to be especially popular, accounting for 33% of total accommodation searches in 2020, a drastic +143% increase from 2019.

A youth movement

On the heels of a pandemic that posed the greatest threat to seniors and baby boomers, the average age of travellers has dropped precipitously across all categories; as age and generational demographics of travellers shift to Gen X, it’s likely that other consumer travel trends—such as
experiences on offer, popular destinations, preferred accommodations and amenities—will follow suit.

The rise of “vaxications”

Pent-up demand for travel, the promise of vaccines for the general public by summer, and border/quarantine restrictions potentially being lifted by internationally coordinated digital health passports will result in a rush of vaccine-enabled vacations.

Look to the East

As borders gradually open and more people are planning to travel in 2021, destinations within Asia are the most searched for international travel as revealed by the 2021 Expedia Travel Trends Report; with all the positive global media coverage around Asia’s early handling of the pandemic, it’s no
surprise that many are looking east for a glimpse of recovery.

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